The Decision: A Team-By-Team Contract Analysis: Houston Rockets

September 28, 2011 at 11:08 am · written by Tae

Whenever the next NBA Season happens, you can be assured that teams will be looking to make necessary changes to how they carry contracts from here on out. With that being said I thought it would be interested to peer into the future and look at the most critical contracts on each NBA roster and address what should be done about each (it’s not like we can use up time on Summer League preview) and how it will affect the team. This series will take place over a few weeks, so you can grab your GM hat, we’re about to go on a ride.

First, let’s rank the type of contracts that we’ll be address in order of importance:

1. Expiring contracts (those due to expire at the end of the planned 2011-2012 season) are the most critical contracts taken into account.
2. Team/Qualifying option contracts. These contracts will come into play next mainly because this allows us to have more control over the players that are not necessarily expiring, but we may want to move with minimal issue.
3. Player/Early Termination option contracts. Unless a player is promised a multi-year extension, this is usually not a simple situation to deal with, especially for older players.

And secondly, some rules:

1. Trades may be taken into consideration.
2. We’ll be taking a team perspective, not a player perspective.
3. The old CBA rules will be taken into account as of September 1st, 2011.
4. I swear I’ll try to make this make as much sense without dabbling into hardcore numbers/analytics/statistics.

• From a basketball standpoint each of these players bring a unique skill set and a bucket full of the potential that can make them a viable starter to a superstar. But doesn’t every young player fit into that category? Why not just keep them all? Well the players that are seemingly guaranteed their place on this team, point guard Kyle Lowry, power forward Luis Scola and shooting guard Kevin Martin are no longer young and if this current Rockets team is going to finally make a playoff run, they need to know what they presently have. Instead of seeing how they presently fit, we’ll determine if the player they are becoming the player the Rockets need to be, in order to build a great team.

• By far and away Terrence Williams has the look, skill set and athleticism to turn into the wing superstar needed to propel this team into the stratosphere. Williams has the LeBron-esque versatility that can take over a game in an instant. He can get anywhere he needs to on the floor, has tremendous vision and his rebounding can be like that of a power forward. Of course that comes with a very large caveat: can he improve his jump-shot to a competent level (similar to how MVP Derrick Rose has attempted to do) and can he show the leadership qualities residing in great players? If not Williams can very well go the way of a James White or Stromile Swift. My guess? Williams playing the small forward position next to a shooter like Kevin Martin can do him wonders. He doesn’t duplicate the strengths of any player in the starting lineup and if the Rockets play an undersized front line (Hayes and Scola) they will need all the rebounding help they can get. He may never be a superstar, but he can very well be a suped up version of what Lamar Odom is for the Los Angeles Lakers with even better defense.

• Courtney Lee has went from the NBA Finals (with the Orlando Magic) to the lottery (New Jersey Nets). He’s been a key starter (Orlando), a bench warmer (Houston) and something in-between (New Jersey). That should be more than enough evidence to show what Lee is/will become. Is he what he was in Orlando (a efficient outside shooter with solid on-the-ball defense)? Or New Jersey (a one-dimensional, inconsistent shooting guard)? I tend to believe a little of both. He is not a starter as my fellow HoopSmack-er Tay P seems to think (better than Kevin Martin???), but he isn’t completely useless. He needs to have a defined role and on a contender can be one of the key glue guys on a championship team. His championship experience and skill set (good outside shooter, marginal driver) is solid enough to keep.

• Patterson, Hill, and Thabeet potential are fighting for minutes with Scola, recent draft pick Marcus Morris, Motiejunas (when he decides to come over) and Chuck Hayes. The question is who fits and who needs to go. Scola, the draftees (Morris and Motiejunas) and Chuck Hayes (defense) are a lock and keeping seven big men on this roster isn’t needed. Let’s say Morris can swing between the power and small forward spots for versatility and Motiejunas is at least a year away from coming. That cuts down the rotation to Hayes and Scola starting. Patterson has shown the most consistent game and has the look of a Udonis Haslem/Al Horford. Not to say he will be as good, but the path is laid for him to follow in their footsteps; he is a lock to keep. Now it comes down to the the two disappointments. High draft picks, very little production. Hill has shown flashes of Stromile Swift in him (do I need to mention why that is a bad thing?), yet has managed to actually contribute on defense (he has per 36 minute averages of 9.8 rpg and 1.7 bpg). Thabeet has been riding the potential bus since his days at UConn and for his size and supposed defensive ability, he can not seem to contribute even five meaningful minutes. Given that he was drafted too high at number 2 overall in 2009, it is time to cut ties. Hill doesn’t miss the chopping block, he should be gone as well. It’s time to search for a true center and not waste time on these two.

• I don’t like Flynn’s game. If you’ve heard our world famous podcast, you should know that I sorely believe Flynn’s contribution to the now classic Syracuse-UConn six overtime game in 2009 has created a profile for him that is more legend than reality. He’s not a true point guard and at 6’0″ he can’t be the starting point guard on a winning team. He is not terrible, but he’s not what we thought he was. There is nothing wrong with that, as long as he can improve his defense and remain a competent point guard in 20 minutes a game. Goran Dragic might have created a following due to his amazing play in Game 3 of the 2010 Western Conference Finals (scoring 23 points in the fourth quarter), but he is more of a shooting guard than a point. Keeping them both would be ideal, but I believe Dragic has the potential to be better over the years. Flynn has too much Randy Foye in him, so he’s got to go.

• Just to recap Thabeet, Flynn and Hill are gone; Patterson, Williams and Lee stay.

Next Up: Indiana Pacers

Comments

NBA Lockout Claims Another Victim

September 23, 2011 at 10:57 am · written by CWill

The NBA postponed training camps indefinitely and canceled 43 preseason games Friday because it couldn’t reach a new labor agreement with its players.

Training camps were expected to open on Oct. 3rd (one day before NBA2K12 drops) and the 43 cancelled preseason games span from Oct 9th-Oct15th.  ”We have regretfully reached the point on the calendar where we are not able to open training camps on time and need to cancel the first week of preseason games,” deputy commissioner Adam Silver said in a statement. “We will make further decisions as warranted.”

After the stalemate following the latest meeting between the players and owners, many expected training camps and parts of the preseason to be cancelled.  Some are hopeful that the regular season (which is scheduled to start Nov. 1) can be saved.  With the owners offering roughly 46% of basketball related revenue to the players (about 11% less than what they got in the last deal), I don’t see how the two sides are going to come to an agreement.  They seem to be so far apart in thinking that its going to take some lost revunue and missed paychecks to get these guys to adjust their thought process.

When Commissioner David Stern was asked about the current state of negotiations, he responded with “I don’t have any response to that. I just don’t. I don’t know the answer.”  As a fan of the NBA, thats definitely something you don’t want to hear from one of the leaders of sport.

Talks haven’t been officially scheduled but both sides hope to meet sometime next week.

Comments

The Decision: A Team-By-Team Contract Analysis: Golden State Warriors

September 23, 2011 at 10:15 am · written by Tae

Whenever the next NBA Season happens, you can be assured that teams will be looking to make necessary changes to how they carry contracts from here on out. With that being said I thought it would be interested to peer into the future and look at the most critical contracts on each NBA roster and address what should be done about each (it’s not like we can use up time on Summer League preview) and how it will affect the team. This series will take place over a few weeks, so you can grab your GM hat, we’re about to go on a ride.

First, let’s rank the type of contracts that we’ll be address in order of importance:

1. Expiring contracts (those due to expire at the end of the planned 2011-2012 season) are the most critical contracts taken into account.
2. Team/Qualifying option contracts. These contracts will come into play next mainly because this allows us to have more control over the players that are not necessarily expiring, but we may want to move with minimal issue.
3. Player/Early Termination option contracts. Unless a player is promised a multi-year extension, this is usually not a simple situation to deal with, especially for older players.

And secondly, some rules:

1. Trades may be taken into consideration.
2. We’ll be taking a team perspective, not a player perspective.
3. The old CBA rules will be taken into account as of September 1st, 2011.
4. I swear I’ll try to make this make as much sense without dabbling into hardcore numbers/analytics/statistics.

Golden State Warriors

Those of you reading this article have the opportunity to witness one of those rare moments within the NBA that will surely leave a lasting impression on your life, your children’s life and future generations thereafter: Monta Ellis playing defense. The photo you’re viewing at this moment is not unlike a Van Gogh or Picasso, except if we were in  bizarro earth, where night was day and time moved backwards. Monta Ellis’s defense was chronicled in painful and graphic detailed by SI.com’s Zach Lowe (here). An extremely athletic shooting guard that has issues changing speeds and directions is a cause for disaster, but when that same guard can go off for 40+ points in a game at a moments notice, casual basketball fans tend to fall prey to ignoring his 30+ shot attempts to obtain those points. With that being said, let’s dive into the contract situation of the enigma known as “Moped” Monta.

• In July 2008, Monta’s 6 year/$66 Million contract was considered pretty high, but at least it wasn’t Rashard Lewis territory. At the time Ellis was a 22 year old, 53.1% shooting from the field, dynamic, hardworking, potential-superstar guard. He was due to replace the departing Baron Davis as the future All-Star guard for the Warriors and at the time was looking to improve as a point guard and move into the starting lineup next to Stephen Jackson. I guess we should of known at the time, maybe even that summer, when not even two months after signing the aforementioned contract extension Monta decided to adopt the moniker: “Moped” Monta (Ellis later did an interview with ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith where he mentioned coining the name after hearing Hip-Hop artist Jadakiss refer to himself as Montaga Jada…… just kidding, but that didn’t sound far-fetched, did it?). Seemly looking for a reason to erroneously ”celebrate (read: void)” his contract extension M&M decided to ride a contract-forbidden moped, ended up crashing it and subsequently missing 57 games during the 2008-2009 season.

• So, what’s this all have to do with his contract now? Well the Warriors have drafted guards Stephen Curry and  Klay Thompson in the last few draft classes and are set to move on from Scooter Ellis sooner than later. The Warriors have been plagued by the stark decline of Double-M’s efficiency (we’ll get to that in a moment) for 3 years now and can surely proclaim that they know exactly what they have in Ellis. The good thing is in the last year, Scooter has an ETO (Early Termination Option) and maybe Golden State can scare him into exercising it and leaving by refusing to promise him a long-term deal. The real issues actually fall on the basketball side, but here a few trades that contractually would work:

1. Monta Ellis to the Philadelphia 76ers for guard/forward Andre Iguodala: The 76ers get the scoring guard they need and Golden State gets the the swingman they need next to Curry.
2. Monta Ellis to the Toronto Raptors for point guard Jose Calderon, James Johnson, and a 1st round pick: Curry can work as a shooting guard next to Jose and Ellis combines with guard DeMar DeRozan to form a very athletic backcourt.
3. Monta Ellis to the Minnesota Timberwolves for forward Michael Beasley and center Brad Miller: A headcase for a headcase; what do you know?

• Bottom line, Monta needs to go, he’s hindering Curry, would eliminate Thompson’s career and it is highly evident his contract needs to be scooted out of the Warrior’s locker room.

• Monta is a scorer, always has been and probably always will be. He seems pretty efficient from a % standpoint (45% from the field, 78% from the line and an average 36% from the 3 point line), but those are not his greatest issues. Shot selection, defense and a general apathy for being less than what he is capable of are the real basketball issues Moped Monta has. He was in the top 20 in the NBA, last season, in Minutes Played, Field Goals (attempted and made), 3 point Field Goals (attempted and made), Free Throws attempted, Assists, Steals, Turnovers and Points; but was 194th in TS%, 209th in eFG%, 67th in Assist% and 12th in Usage% (% of team plays used by a player while he is on the floor). So let me break this down:

1. Scooter Ellis has the ball in his hand each game comparable to Kobe “The Loan Shark” Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant.
2. He amasses larger numbers of points, assists and steals by sheer volume.
3. He ranks near the lower 3rd of the NBA in efficiency regarding those points, assists and steals he amasses.
4. His defense is even worse than the previous issues stated.

Comments

Welcome to Day 81 of the NBA Lockout

September 19, 2011 at 7:19 am · written by CWill

Hello ladies and gentlemen and welcome to day 81 of the NBA Lockout. Let’s look at what has transpired in the last 1,944 hours shall we…

Basketball truly becomes global with NBA players making their way overseas.

Even before the lockout began we heard that NBA players would consider playing overseas if a lockout happened.  At first it was just generalizations and heresay.  Then came the news that All Star point guard Deron Williams signed with the Turkish club Besiktas and many assumed the floodgates would open.

The “mass exodus” has been slow but more players are making the jump to play over international teams.  In addition to Williams, we saw Denver Nuggets teammates Wilson Chandler and JR Smith sign with teams in China while another Nuggets player Ty Lawson will be playing in Jonas Valanciunas’s backyard in Lithuania.  Joining Chandler will be former Orlando Magic forward Earl Clark.

While China seems to be attracting better known NBA talent despite their “no NBA out clause”, Europe is also seeing an uptick of NBA talent with Reggie Williams, Sean Williams, Donatas Motiejunas, E`Twaun Moore (really?…thats your name?), Jeff Adrien, Brian Scalabrine, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Mario West, Keith Benson, and Jon Diebler all playing for European clubs.

Not without their own represenation, South America will see the likes of Leandro Barbosa and Austraila will have to put up with Portland Trailblazers point guard Patty Mills for a season at least.

As you can see none of the Kobes, Wades, Lebrons, or Durants have made their way across the border but with time running out and the prospect of losing the 2011-2012 NBA season increasing with each passing day, it will be only a matter of time before we see one of the elite make the jump and really get this exodus going.

Summer Summer Summer Time, Lets get it Pro Am!!

When the NBA Summer League was officially cancelled, it signified that the lockout would definitely have some causalties but it also did nothing in regards to urgency.  Owners and players seem to already accept the fate of the cancellation and were preparing to dig in and solidfy their postitions.  With no official outlet, NBA players found new summer homes in pro-am leagues and streetball tournaments.  Highlights started coming in from all over the country via ESPN, camera phones, poems, and interpretive dance.

Many great players have had the rite of passage at the famous Rucker Park.  Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Irving, Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant and more recently (and in spectacular fashion) Kevin Durant.  Durant has been blazing a trail this summer with his peformances but his showing at Rucker was absolutely amazing.  It was Monday, August 1st, 2011.  The event, Entertainers Basketball Classic.  Durant poured in 66 points with silky drives and long range bombs.  Not to be outdone, Kobe dropped 45 points which included a game winner over the hands of Oklahoma City star James Harden two weeks later in a Drew League game.

As a fan you can’t help but be happy with NBA stars gracing outdoor courts and pro am leagues but with players seemingly risking their bodies, it seems to point to a lengthy work stoppage.

Hoop fiends get their temporary fix thanks to EuroBasket and FIBA

The real competition.  Bragging rights.  In Europe, its not the Olympics that is most important, its the EuroBasket Championship.  Not only do the top teams get an Olympic bid but they get the honor of saying they are better than any other country in Europe.

Now normally I wouldn’t have thought picking the teams with the most NBA talent is necessarily the best way to predict a winner (historically teams loaded with NBA players haven’t done well), but this year was an exception.  Spain and France were loaded with NBA talent and we saw these two teams battle it out for EuroBasket supremacy.  Spain was led by the Gasol brothers, Pau and Marc.  They also had point guard Ricky Rubio, athletic freak Serge Ibaka, Mr. Assist to Turnover ratio Jose Calderon, and the bipolar Rudy Fernandez.  France also had some firepower with former Finals MVP Tony Parker, consummate screamer Joakim Noah, body fat extraordinaire Boris Diaw, and “I Like to Dunk Now” Nicolas Batum.  Spain came out with the victory 98-85 and successfully defended their EuroBasket title.

It was great to see some familiar faces as well as some potential stars who have the makings to become the next Dirk Nowitzki or the next Nikoloz Tskitishvili.  It also highlighted the fact that (sorry EuroLeague fans) the NBA is by far the better league.  Better players, better presentation, better crowds, better everything.

NFL, Home Depot, R&B Music, Internships, Captain Planet, and Lebron gets dunked on again…

Now that players have all this new found time on their hands, we see them venturing out into areas that they may not have been considered if basketball was in the picture.  Former Gloria James love interest, Delonte West decided to take his talents to Home Depot where he would earn about $10/hr and receive modest benefits (is Home Depot even hiring?…thanks alot Obama!!).  Seattle native Nate Robinson has made mention to playing for the Seahawks and has even gone on to have conversations with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll about the possibility.  We’ll see how that goes now that Nate has his own reality show.  Another Seattle prep star Martell Webster applied to be R&B singer Ryan Leslie’s intern…via twitter.  Speaking of internships, dunk enthusiast Blake Griffin got an internship at the greatest website of all time FunnyOrDie.com (Don Cheadle as Captain Planet FTW!).  Oh yeah, Lebron got stripped and dunked on by a Taiwanese kid but Lebron bashing is old news…

Maybe Agent Zero wasn’t the one we should have worried about.

If the charges are true, Gilbert Arenas may have received too much negative attention last year.  Former Washington Wizards guard Javaris Crittenton has been charged of killing 22-year old Julian Jones, a mother of four, who was hit by gunfire during a drive-by.

I imagine Gilbert is somewhere playing Snoop’s “Murder Was the Case” in honor of his former teammate.  Shout out to all the “Crittenton can finally shoot” jokes as well.

Not End In Sight…

Long story short, the NBA owners have locked out its players and as of September 19th, 2011, little progress has been made in the negotiations and if you believe whats been reported it doesn’t look like we will be getting to a resolution anytime soon (unless your name is Lebron James and think the solution is a quick fix.)

The tone of the conversation from leaders on both sides doesn’t sound like compromise.  It sounds like posturing.  The players have been preparing for this situation for years and will not allow the owners to splinter their ranks when they start missing paychecks.  The owners insist on a “hard cap system” and will not budge even with reports coming out that the owners are not ALL in agreement.  Both sides appear to only want to comment on unity and not discuss how to get the league back to an operating state.  If you listen to ESPN writer Larry Coon, you would think the players need to get the ball rolling,

If a deal isn’t hammered out soon, then it’s not good news for the players. The longer this lockout lasts, the stronger the owners’ position becomes. The players can make it tough on the owners in the meantime, but they can’t prevent the inevitable. In a game of tug-of-war, the bigger side wins. In this dispute the owners are the bigger side.

I personally agree with Larry on this one.  Unfortunately the bigger side is full of idiots who are the only ones to blame for the position they are in now.  Who gives Rashard Lewis a max? Really?

HoopSmack gets T-Shirts – *PLUG*

Despite the NBA being in lockout mode, we were able to get it done.  HoopSmack officially has t-shirts.  We have the classic white on black edition, the ultra cool black on white edition (hot seller), and for the Husky faithful we have the sacred purple and gold.

Get those orders in people! E-mail, phone call, twitter, Facebook, we accept all forms of communication.  We’ll soon have our online store up and you can buy them directly from the site! Stay tuned!

Comments

Behind Every Great Man …

September 16, 2011 at 11:23 am · written by Lady C

The Rachel Zoe of ballers is Rachel Johnson.  Ms. Johnson, if you’re nasty.  And she is responsible for some of the sickest looks off the hardwoods.  Amare Stoudemire, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh are soldiers of her prophetic vision.  Under her guidance, Amare rocked this powder blue Tom Ford suit and advanced his fashion game straight to front row seat (recurring!) invitations to the Tommy Hilfiger runway.

While the fate of the league hangs in the balance, Lady C remains on the look out on the players fashion game!

Comments

The Decision: A Team-By-Team Contract Analysis: Detroit Pistons

September 15, 2011 at 11:16 am · written by Tae

Whenever the next NBA Season happens, you can be assured that teams will be looking to make necessary changes to how they carry contracts from here on out. With that being said I thought it would be interested to peer into the future and look at the most critical contracts on each NBA roster and address what should be done about each (it’s not like we can use up time on Summer League preview) and how it will affect the team. This series will take place over a few weeks, so you can grab your GM hat, we’re about to go on a ride.

First, let’s rank the type of contracts that we’ll be address in order of importance:

1. Expiring contracts (those due to expire at the end of the planned 2011-2012 season) are the most critical contracts taken into account.
2. Team/Qualifying option contracts. These contracts will come into play next mainly because this allows us to have more control over the players that are not necessarily expiring, but we may want to move with minimal issue.
3. Player/Early Termination option contracts. Unless a player is promised a multi-year extension, this is usually not a simple situation to deal with, especially for older players.

And secondly, some rules:

1. Trades may be taken into consideration.
2. We’ll be taking a team perspective, not a player perspective.
3. The old CBA rules will be taken into account as of September 1st, 2011.
4. I swear I’ll try to make this make as much sense without dabbling into hardcore numbers/analytics/statistics.

Detroit Pistons

I feel sorry for Rodney Stuckey. He’s on one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NBA. He has to share the backcourt with Rip Hamilton, Tracy McGrady, Ben Gordon, and Will Bynum; while passing the ball to Charlie Villanueva and some combination of Ben Wallace and Jason Maxiell. With the future of this team in Greg Monroe and Jonas Jerebko‘s hands, there is optimism for the future of this team and Stuckey is stuck smack dab in the middle.

• Back when we reviewed the critical contracts of the Charlotte Bobcats, we speculated on what should and could happen with the contractual status of D.J. Augustin, I noted Stuckey’s $3.8 Million qualifying offer and the few players that are in the same boat. Unlike Kyle Lowry and Mike Conley, Stuckey didn’t have the assurance of team and role stability to build on his previous season. Coach John Kuester‘s direction last year of the Pistons was, for lack of a better word, horrendous. He started Tracy McGrady at point guard, he played mind games with Richard Hamilton‘s playing time, and allowed Tayshaun Prince to play the most minutes on the team. Now this isn’t a review of the past season, but I have to paint a picture of how unusual this year was for Stuckey. Kuester would play Ben Gordon for 20 minutes one game then 35 the next, at the expense of Stuckey. The Pistons suffered from a lack of direction. When the young players like Greg Monroe, Austin Daye, and Stuckey should have been logging the most minutes, Kuester decided to play the mediocre game. Now GM Joe Dumars should of assisted Kuester by shipping off as many as the older players as possible and Stuckey’s growth ended up suffering because of it. With a reduction in minutes overall and no knowledge of his minutes being played game-to-game there is no way we can gauge if Stuckey has reached his ceiling or if he is just a product of his environment.

• Based on those mentioned earlier and the well-known favor he holds with Joe Dumars, and if we take into account Dumars’s recent spending habits, Stuckey can look forward to a better payday than Augustin. Which means even though Stuckey probably deserves the same $6-$7 Million/year contract, he’ll probably be given something along the lines of the 5 year/$42 Million extension then-Dallas Mavericks point guard Devin Harris received in 2007. Should they do that? Of course not, but you’ll know why in the next section. It’s not the money, it’s the years. 5 years would put Stuckey at the age of 30 when his contract is up, meaning no matter what, the Pistons we be linked to his growth or lack thereof. 3 years/$25 Million is more like it. That means Stuckey’s last year would be the year that the Pistons are only tied to his, Monroe, and any extensions given to Daye and Jonas Jerekbo. The perfect set up to truly evaluate the young team.

• Now here is the real issue with Stuckey’s future, from a basketball standpoint we still don’t really know who he is. He was drafted as the second coming of Chauncey Billups, which he has yet to fulfill (maybe he is trying to imitate Billups’s career perfectly with a late bloom). Stuckey is not a true point guard, yet the Pistons can’t let go of the fact that they drafted him to be so. His highest assist average is 5.2 (last season); his assist % is lower than Augustin, Lowry, Aaron Brooks and almost every starting point guard except Billups and Brandon Jennings). He doesn’t have the outside shot you need from your point guard in order to space the floor (he has never shot above 44% from the field and 30% from the three point line), but 60%(!) of his shots are from outside. Not to bash Stuckey, but it’s clear at this point he is not a point guard. In every essence of the word, he is a combo guard. He is does distribute the ball at an above average level for a shooting guard, but he he does not have the size or outside shot to play there exclusively. He gets to the line at a pretty good rate (5.4 attempts/game) and he is not a complete liability on defense (he can guard both guard positions as well as some small forwards). So what do we do? I think Stuckey is a late bloomer honestly, he has the tools and he is a smart player. But, because you can’t start him confidently at any of the guard spots, you have to hope he can develop into a Jamal Crawford/Jason Terry hybrid with a marginally better jump shot than what he has presently. Problem is, you can’t pay $8 Million/year for him to be a great 6th man, especially if you (idiotically) decide to keep Ben Gordon. That’s why a 3 year deal, with Stuckey starting for at least the first two years, is what the doctor ordered.

Comments (1)

The Decision: A Team-By-Team Contract Analysis – Denver Nuggets

September 13, 2011 at 1:18 pm · written by Tae

Whenever the next NBA Season happens, you can be assured that teams will be looking to make necessary changes to how they carry contracts from here on out. With that being said I thought it would be interested to peer into the future and look at the most critical contracts on each NBA roster and address what should be done about each (it’s not like we can use up time on Summer League preview) and how it will affect the team. This series will take place over a few weeks, so you can grab your GM hat, we’re about to go on a ride.

First, let’s rank the type of contracts that we’ll be address in order of importance:

1. Expiring contracts (those due to expire at the end of the planned 2011-2012 season) are the most critical contracts taken into account.
2. Team/Qualifying option contracts. These contracts will come into play next mainly because this allows us to have more control over the players that are not necessarily expiring, but we may want to move with minimal issue.
3. Player/Early Termination option contracts. Unless a player is promised a multi-year extension, this is usually not a simple situation to deal with, especially for older players.

And secondly, some rules:

1. Trades may be taken into consideration.
2. We’ll be taking a team perspective, not a player perspective.
3. The old CBA rules will be taken into account as of September 1st, 2011.
4. I swear I’ll try to make this make as much sense without dabbling into hardcore numbers/analytics/statistics.

Denver Nuggets

When Forward Wilson Chandler decided to forgo playing the 2011-2012  in the NBA and take an ill-advised trip across the Pacific Ocean to play with Zhejiang Guangsha of the Chinese Basketball Association, the Denver Nuggets’ free agent decisions became that much easier. Though Danilo Gallinari and the recently acquired Andre Miller are set to be free agents going after this coming season, shooting guard Arron Afflalo may be the most integral piece when it comes to the future of the Nuggets. Though he was outcast from the Detroit Pistons, Afflalo growth in his fourth year in the NBA gives me reason to believe he can a key part in a championship team. Denver may not be there yet, but they certainly are acquiring good pieces and are right on the threshold of perennial playoff contention.

• Afflalo is a restricted free agent coming off his rookie contract and is currently eligible to receive a qualifying offer for just under $3 Million. Last season the Nuggets allowed the deadline to pass for offering Afflalo an extension and waited until this past summer to extend the aforementioned qualifying offer. Due to this idiotic lockout of course Afflalo hasn’t been able to accept the offer, but from comments he made last year about being honored to even be in discussions on an extension, you can almost be assured that he won’t make it a big issue. Afflalo doesn’t seem to carry the “over-paid” stink that rest on most overachieving players on semi-good teams; Afflalo actually seems to understand his market worth.

• Before we even list the specifics of what Denver should offer Afflalo, there is no reason the Nuggets should not resign him. Looking at Jared Dudley and Ramon Sessions, two players that are in the same draft class and have experienced a similar career arch (i.e. Age, Points, Rebounds, PER, etc.), we can make an assumption on the type of contract Afflalo should be offered. In 2009, Sessions signed a 4 year/$16 Million contract with the Timberwolves. In 2010, Dudley signed a 5 year/$22.5 Million contract with the Phoenix Suns. Afflalo bloomed later compared to Dudley and Sessions, but I blame this on the coaching decisions of the Detroit Pistons rather than the ability of Afflalo. I believe he actually has a higher ceiling than both players, but he probably will never be more than a spot up shooter/perimeter defensive stopper with above average driving ability. But he should fill that role 100%. 5 years/$28 Million with incentives would lock Afflalo in for the years of his prime at a pretty reasonable price. At the core, Afflalo is a good role player, he should be paid accordingly. I wouldn’t oppose anyone stating that almost $6 Million/yr is too much, but for this Denver team that just lost Chandler to China, the price just went up.

• As stated earlier, Afflalo has improved year-over-year in almost every category. Last season he averaged career highs in points (12.9 per game), assists (2.4), rebounds (3.6), field goal % (49.8) in six more minutes played (27 to 33). He is extremely efficient (he registered a True Shooting % of 62%, 3rd in the NBA), made the Nuggets over 3 points better on defense (which for Denver is amazing) and almost a point better on offense when he was on the floor, all the while guarding the best perimeter stars in the league on a nightly basis. You would definitely like your starting shooting guard to develop a way to draw more free throws on a regular basis (he only attempted 30 free throws in 69 games last year), but that may he only needs to boost his average from 2.4/game to around 4/game and he would be even more well-rounded. Afflalo is one of those sneaky efficient players that can fit seamlessly on offense and defense on almost any NBA roster. He only needs around 30 minutes/game and he’s athletic enough that you never have to worry about him being a liability. The only real issue is his ceiling. How integral do you want him to be in this Denver roster? Do expect him to ever make an All-Star game (unlikely)? If he never outgrows his performance from this past season will you be disappointed (probably)? Regardless, he fits and that’s enough to keep him.

Next Up: Detroit Pistons

Comments

The Decision: A Team-By-Team Contract Analysis – Dallas Mavericks

September 9, 2011 at 5:12 pm · written by Tae

Whenever the next NBA Season happens, you can be assured that teams will be looking to make necessary changes to how they carry contracts from here on out. With that being said I thought it would be interested to peer into the future and look at the most critical contracts on each NBA roster and address what should be done about each (it’s not like we can use up time on Summer League preview) and how it will affect the team. This series will take place over a few weeks, so you can grab your GM hat, we’re about to go on a ride.

First, let’s rank the type of contracts that we’ll be address in order of importance:

1. Expiring contracts (those due to expire at the end of the planned 2011-2012 season) are the most critical contracts taken into account.
2. Team/Qualifying option contracts. These contracts will come into play next mainly because this allows us to have more control over the players that are not necessarily expiring, but we may want to move with minimal issue.
3. Player/Early Termination option contracts. Unless a player is promised a multi-year extension, this is usually not a simple situation to deal with, especially for older players.

And secondly, some rules:

1. Trades may be taken into consideration.
2. We’ll be taking a team perspective, not a player perspective.
3. The old CBA rules will be taken into account as of September 1st, 2011.
4. I swear I’ll try to make this make as much sense without dabbling into hardcore numbers/analytics/statistics.

Dallas Mavericks

I got this text from HoopSmack creator CWill yesterday, “And I thought DJ Clue was dead. He’s doing Jason Terry‘s championship b’day celebration.” And I thought to myself (before I responded with seeing DJ Clue dj’ing in Best Buy last week), Jason Terry must be seriously struggling financially in order to stoop down to the level of paying for DJ Clue to dj your gig. What is this? 1998? Maybe Terry isn’t as confident that he’ll have that contract extension coming after the 2011-2012 season. Either way Terry and fellow championship guard, Jason Kidd, are going to be looking at either an extension, playing out their years with another contender, or retirement. What’s a franchise to do?

• Terry and Kidd are set to make $10.6 and $8.6 Million, respectively, this coming season. With the aforementioned birthday bash, Terry will be 34 years old next week, and Kidd turns 39 years old this season. With the largest contracts of their careers already behind them, how does one gauge the future worth of two key players in the Mavericks yearly championship aspirations? In Kidd’s case the only comparable players we can reference are Ray Allen and Steve Nash, two respected veterans that signed 2 year/$20 Million deals. Kidd is a year older, but a 2 year deal worth $12-15 Million (with the possibility of a player or team option in the second year) sounds about right. There is a real possibility that Mr. Triple Double could retire at the end of his current contract.

• Terry on the other hand still has at least 2 more years at his current playing level before he experiences any serious decline in his skills. He is a scorer, but because 88% of his shots are jump shots, he’s not prone to suffering from losing his athleticism. If you take into account his role on the team, Terry very well could be as effective as Kidd when he becomes 38. Armed with that knowledge, something similar to the 3 year $25 Million (3 yrs./$22 Million?) contract Kidd received in the summer of 2009 could be what Terry is looking at in the summer of 2012.

• These may be good deals for the players, considering their age, but are these bad deals for Dallas? If we take into account those contracts for Kidd and Terry, Dallas would have the core of their 2011 Championship team (depending on what they do with Tyson Chandler) up through the 2013-2014 season. Terry would be 36, Kidd 41, Dirk Nowitzki 35, Shawn Marion 36, and Chandler 31. Along with Brendan Haywood‘s $8 Million/yr contract (and excluding any contract of Chandler), Dallas would have approximately $50 Million tied up in those 5 players. That’s also not taking into account the extensions for the crop of young players on their team. It would be foolish to tie up that amount of money long-term, but with Dirk surely retiring as a Maverick, you’ll always have to be clever contractually. In my opinion I say yes to both, but not for the amounts listed.

• Terry should remain pretty effective going into his later years, as I stated earlier. He is mainly a 3 point and mid-range jump shooter and he doesn’t need much athleticism to get it off. He’s a crafty veteran on defense, even though his speed will continue to slip. He should be effective enough to stay in his 6th man role and provide the necessary scoring boost the Mavericks need, but with players like Rudy Fernandez and Roddy Beaubois in line to take up minutes Terry may not even be needed. Kidd on the other hand at this moment is irreplaceable. The Mavs don’t have a competent point guard behind him (J. J. Barea is not the answer or the future and Roddy is still all hype, no substance) and with draft picks that will be in the low 20s for the next few years, it may not be that easy to groom one. In the next 2 years, the aforementioned Roddy, Rudy and recent draft pick Dominique Jones must show growth. If you resign Terry and Kidd (unless they are willing to take a reduced role each year), there may not be minutes available to play the young players. In my opinion that would be a huge mistake. Terry and Kidd don’t have the egos of most stars in the NBA (as shown by their willingness to accept lesser roles), but now that they have won a championship would that change things. Terry already is a notorious talker and self-promoter, could it become worse with age? Those questions all must be answered before any contracts are given to Terry and Kidd, because afterwards it may be too late. It makes sense to resign them, because if it isn’t broke, why fix it? But in the NBA the best GMs are proactive. From a basketball standpoint my decision is no for Terry and yes for Kidd.

Next Up: Denver Nuggets

Comments

The Decision: A Team-By-Team Contract Analysis – Cleveland Cavaliers

September 8, 2011 at 3:00 pm · written by Tae

Whenever the next NBA Season happens, you can be assured that teams will be looking to make necessary changes to how they carry contracts from here on out. With that being said I thought it would be interested to peer into the future and look at the most critical contracts on each NBA roster and address what should be done about each (it’s not like we can use up time on Summer League preview) and how it will affect the team. This series will take place over a few weeks, so you can grab your GM hat, we’re about to go on a ride.

First, let’s rank the type of contracts that we’ll be address in order of importance:

1. Expiring contracts (those due to expire at the end of the planned 2011-2012 season) are the most critical contracts taken into account.
2. Team/Qualifying option contracts. These contracts will come into play next mainly because this allows us to have more control over the players that are not necessarily expiring, but we may want to move with minimal issue.
3. Player/Early Termination option contracts. Unless a player is promised a multi-year extension, this is usually not a simple situation to deal with, especially for older players.

And secondly, some rules:

1. Trades may be taken into consideration.
2. We’ll be taking a team perspective, not a player perspective.
3. The old CBA rules will be taken into account as of September 1st, 2011.
4. I swear I’ll try to make this make as much sense without dabbling into hardcore numbers/analytics/statistics.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Honestly, I tried to skip the Cleveland Cavaliers. They’re not interesting, I’m still perplexed by the Tristan Thompson draft choice and I’m not convinced Ginuwine (sorry), I mean Kyrie Irving is really the truth. The fact that they couldn’t deal off the mainstay you see above is proof that the Idiotic still reigns supreme in Ohio. The only good thing about the Cavs is that they have a lot of opportunity to turn over their roster; and it all starts with grandpa Cavalier: Antawn Jamison.

• Jamison is coming into the last year of the 4 year/$50 Million extension he signed with the Washington Wizards back in 2008. The $15 Million he is set to make in the 2011-2012 season, places him as the 20th highest paid player in the league (another friendly lockout reminder). Jamison has averaged around $9.5 Million over the past 9 years of his career. At 35 years old, his 8-figure income days are over. What’s he worth? Depends on who you ask. For the Cavaliers, 1st round pick Tristan Thompson should be the present and future at the small/power forward positions. With Anderson Varajeo coming back…….OK, let me stop. This team doesn’t even have a plan. There is no way Jamison should even finish the season out in a Cavaliers uniform. Unless he’s willing to accept the veteran’s minimum (approximately $1.4 Million) and be a mentor to Thompson and the other young bigs on the team, there should be no place for him. Take that back, there should be no place for him on this team, period.

• For Jamison it’s even worse from a basketball standpoint. The Cavs are rebuilding, Jamison doesn’t bring a discernible skill to the table that gives reason for pause, he’s old (did I mention that one) and he’s averaged just over 60 games a season for the last 3 years. His mid-range game will more than likely always be there, but he shot 42% from the field and has difficulties guarding a cardboard cut-out. One more number for you: 26.0. That’s the PER opponents obtained when playing against Tawn Tawn. The leader for PER last season was LeBron James at 27.3, followed by Dwight Howard at 26.0 and Dwyane Wade at 25.6. Jamison allowed everyone he guarded to play on the level of Dwight Howard and made them better than Dwyane Wade. There is no way he stays on this roster.

• A favorite of coach Byron Scott last season, Daniel “Boobie” Gibson‘s contract ends with a non-guaranteed $4.7 Million salary in the 2012-2013 season. He’s relatively young at 25 years old, and has shown that he can be a reliable contributor off the bench for almost any NBA team. Given the relative uncertainty in the Cleveland roster and the fairly inexpensive extension the Cavs can sign him to, resigning Gibson should be a smooth process. The only problem is if Gibson can’t see himself spending his prime on a rebuilding roster and wants to bolt to a contender. The league is always flush with shooters and Gibson doesn’t have the leverage of being a worthwhile contributor on a contending team to make a higher salary demands. This is a yes in my book; a 3-4 year deal for $16-21 Million sounds about right to me.

• Gibson has grown from a undersized combo guard, drafted out of the 2nd round in the 2006 NBA draft to an above-average point guard with a deadly shooting touch. Last year Gibson set career highs (per game) in points, assists, rebounds, free throw %, free throw attempts and makes and PER. He’ll never be a true defensive stalwart, but the Cavalier offense was almost 5 points better when he was on the floor. Even though I don’t see Gibson being that much better as a basketball player, the level he is at now is good enough to keep him on this team for the foreseeable future (which I yet to figure out is a good or bad thing). Honestly the Cleveland Cavaliers are in great position contractually. If they manage their assets correctly, they can rebound quickly from The Decision. Cleveland fans will just have to endure a few more years of this:

Comments

The Decision: A Team-By-Team Contract Analysis Day 4 – Chicago Bulls

September 7, 2011 at 12:48 pm · written by Tae

Whenever the next NBA Season happens, you can be assured that teams will be looking to make necessary changes to how they carry contracts from here on out. With that being said I thought it would be interested to peer into the future and look at the most critical contracts on each NBA roster and address what should be done about each (it’s not like we can use up time on Summer League preview) and how it will affect the team. This series will take place over a few weeks, so you can grab your GM hat, we’re about to go on a ride.

First, let’s rank the type of contracts that we’ll be address in order of importance:

1. Expiring contracts (those due to expire at the end of the planned 2011-2012 season) are the most critical contracts taken into account.
2. Team/Qualifying option contracts. These contracts will come into play next mainly because this allows us to have more control over the players that are not necessarily expiring, but we may want to move with minimal issue.
3. Player/Early Termination option contracts. Unless a player is promised a multi-year extension, this is usually not a simple situation to deal with, espeically for older players.

And secondly, some rules:

1. Trades may be taken into consideration.
2. We’ll be taking a team perspective, not a player perspective.
3. The old CBA rules will be taken into account as of September 1st, 2011.
4. I swear I’ll try to make this make as much sense without dabbling into hardcore numbers/analytics/statistics.

Chicago Bulls

I know what you’re thinking. “Why is that not a picture of Derrick Rose leaping for some ridiculous, inverted lay-up? He’s coming into the last year of his contract. You know the Bulls are going to extend him, right? How is the 2010-2011 Regular Season MVP not the most critical contract on the roster!? You’re crazy.” Well I chose to not be ignorant enough to actually open up the question of how much he’s getting extended for and if he’s worth it. He’s one of the top players in the league and he’s getting max money: done and done. Now to move on to the real debatable contracts.

Back around the beginning of the calendar year, C.J. Watson tweeted a nickname suggestion for the Chicago Bulls second unit. The name: The Bench Mob. As dumb as that name sounds (it sounds like a 1990s Rap group), Watson, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson, Kurt Thomas and Omer Asik earned the name due to ranking as one the better (if not the best) second unit in the NBA last season. Coming into the 2011-2012 season four key members of the Chicago bench will be in line to either get a contract extension from the Bulls or move on to another team.

• Korver, Asik, Watson, and Brewer all are in the same boat: A fully guaranteed year (’11-’12) followed by a partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed contract if waived by the end of the ’11-’12 season. Korver currently makes the most at $5 Million/yr, followed by Brewer ($4.7 Million), Watson ($3.4 Million) and Asik ($1.8 Million). With the majority of their team locked up for at least the next 3 years (and let’s also add a 5 year contract extension for Derrick Rose in the neighborhood of $17 Million/yr, which is similar to the extension Kevin Durant signed), the Bulls will need to determine if this group will be the core of their bench for the next 3-4 year.

• Starting with Kyle Korver, contractually, he is the king of the mid-level exception. In this case, both parties would have an idea of how much would be offered in an extension. Brewer is on the second contract of his career, this past season was the most he made as a pro. Watson made well above his career average, while Asik is coming off his rookie contract. If you take into consideration the hypothetical Derrick Rose extension, the Bulls salaries would be around $60 Million after the ’11-’12 season. The salary cap this past season was $58 Million, that’s a recipe for luxury tax mayhem. $57 Million of the total would be tied to four players: Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, and Rose. Using this year’s CBA and salary cap as a guide, not all these players are staying. There needs to be room carved out to get a starting shooting guard and frankly some of the bench may need to be established through the draft.

• Out of the four Asik is the wild card, he’s young, inexpensive and therefore the only irreplaceable piece. Korver makes too much for what he does (shoot the ball well), while Brewer and Watson are the type of average contracts you can afford to replace at anytime. Verdict: yes to keeping Asik and Watson, no to Korver and Brewer.

• Now from a basketball standpoint. The oldest of the group, Kyle Korver, will be 31 years old this season. Yet he possesses the one skill that ages very well, shooting. His foot speed is not going to get any better, so his defense stands the chance of getting worse. Korver struggled with the one area he must be consistently great in: shooting the 3 ball. He shot 41% from three, which is above average, but when that’s all you’re assigned to do within the offense, 41% isn’t good enough (for example, the corpse of Mike Bibby shot 45% in a similar role). In 20 minutes per game 8.3 points is pretty good overall and his mere presence on the court improved the Bulls spacing offensively more than anything. Even though he was not great defensively, small forwards only generated a 10.4 PER against him for the season.

• Brewer on the other hand was the anti-Korver. The Bulls were 8.2 points better on defense when he was on the floor and 6.1 points better on offense when he was off. He played great defense off the bench, was a consistent high-energy player, but still can’t shoot from outside, create off the dribble, or generally create his own offense on a above average level. Brewer isn’t usually a great liability offensively, but he isn’t anything spectacular either.

• I liked Watson back in the free-flowing high-octane offense of Golden State, not so much in the restricted offense of the Chicago Bulls. But as the year rolled on, Watson began to fit into the Bulls bench quite well. Even though he only played 13.3 minutes per game, he averaged 8.2 assists per 48 minutes (4 above his career average) and his 26.9 assist % ranked within the top 25 in the league. Watson’s scoring did not seem to travel from Golden State as he shot a career worse 37% (he is north of 42% for his entire career) and seemed lost at times. Yet he is becoming the ideal backup point guard, one can score at will and facilitate when needed.

• Statistically Omer Asik was nothing to brag over, but the growth he showed throughout last season, reminds me of another Euro big that was “hidden” behind an establish Eastern Conference center: Marcin Gortat. And like Gortat, Asik has the potential to grow into a starting caliber big man in the NBA. Only 25 years old, Asik is a good defensive, rebounding big man, with an improving offensive game. There is a reason the Bulls deemed him somewhat “untouchable” to potential trade partners.

• The main benefit to keeping these four players together is the chemistry they possess; and another year together is only going to make one the best second units in the NBA better. Only two things should keep the Bulls from refusing to keep all four players. 1. The aforementioned contractual demands and 2. Trade offers to bring in a reliable starting shooting guard. From a basketball standpoint, the answer to if Chicago should keep them is a resounding, yes.

Comments